Uncertainty is the word for embattled South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, supposedly minor incident that his Phala Phala farm two years ago has morphed into a dragon that’s threatening to swallow the one-time general secretary of the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM).
The genesis of the crisis that is threatening to bury President Cyril Ramaphosa dates back to 2020. But it only popped into the public space earlier this year following the “forced” exit of police chief Arthur Fraser.
The police chief, a notable loyalist of former president Jacob Zuma, had, following his departure from the police service, alerted the Rainbow Nation to the heist that had taken place in President Ramaphosa’s Phala Phala farm in 2020.
he mentioned names and also released a clip of the robbery to buttress his point. Millions in foreign currency had been stolen from the president’s Phala Phala farm but the president sought to recover the money without informing the police authorities as he should have done by law.
Fraser accused the president f corruption and money laundering and provided data to back up the case for an investigation and possible prosecution of the president.
Although initially silent over Fraser’s claims, President Ramaphosa had clarified that the millions in American dollars at the farm were from the sale of livestock.
The claim left many South Africans unimpressed, with some of them insisting that he must step down as president and face prosecutors.
And with parliament set to hear the findings of an investigation into the heist, new voices are buzzing for Ramaphosa to step down as president and face the law. Even the opposition Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), via its leader Julius Malema, has made it clear the president must step down or else be impeached and prosecuted over the Phala Phala.
With all the nose over the Phala Phala scandal, a new narrative had emerged that President Ramaphosa might resign. Of course, anyone with a grasp of politics would agree that the narrative might have been set in motion by the opposition and adversaries of the president.
The narrative of a possible resignation was soon countered by another: The president will not resign. But what if the president should resign or be impeached? There are, expectedly, a lot of permutations, and we try to explore some of them.
It goes without saying that Ramaphosa is not Zuma’s man, especially given the State Capture Commission that had ruffled the former president with allegations of corruption through dealings with the Gupta brothers. If Ramaphosa should go, Zuma would be a happy, man.
Before the Phala Phala crisis gained resonance within South Africa and beyond. Some elements within the ANC had propped Patrice Motsepe as a possible replacement for Ramaphosa. The president is married to the sister of the mining magnate. So it is likely that Ramaphosa might push the candidature of Motsepe, who’s currently focused on African football.
The reason for this is simple enough. With Motsepe as president, Ramaphosa would still have a semblance of influence within the presidency and within the ruling party. More than that, Motsepe would most likely handle the case against him with kid gloves. He is, after all, “family.”
Also, the ANC doesn’t have much to worry about from the president’s resignation as it would not have much impact on the party snagging the presidency’s next election cycle. The party has already dug itself into the trenches of power, and with the realities on the ground, the opposition parties do not have the sinew to take out the ANC. Not yet.
The reality is that Ramaphosa’s resignation or impeachment would be entirely his own loss – a casualty of his own cupidity.
